Dude, if I drink a lot of fluids and don't take a **** my weight can be +/- 10 lbs. Time of day is also important.
Do cardio (I like running), weight training, core workouts, and maybe try a martial art?
3500 calories burned is a pound. If you can burn 3500 with exercise and cut back 500 cal a day would will lose 2 lbs a week (generally).