The O.P. was a little vague in the request but, he did convey that he was looking for test data reflecting the effect of BPS on one's ability to pass through without being hit. Later, he stresses that he wants to see the math-related to the test.
As far as the Punkworks test goes, it's the most comprehensive test to date and, yes it has limitations. the premise of the test was whether or nor a certain BPS would be able to lock down a lane. What they got right in the test- a fixed marker, operating at known BPS rates, known distances, an assortment of runners, starting a lane at hip height, then having a runner run through it. Unfortunately, I can't find the data so I can't comment on findings and I can't find any discussions of the data. I suspect that the forum might have lost some posts because it's unusual that in the actual post-test thread
, there's no significant discussion and, in the previously linked thread, the topic ends with the posting of the video. Without that information, I cannot say if they accounted for bounces in the data nor, can I comment on their findings. If I actually cared about laning performance, I would ask Bryce or Cockerpunk about it.
As far as the math goes, nobody has ever really posted any meaningful theories. A lot of folks attempt to theorize based on the size and velocity of the runner, the distance between shots, the velocity, and, in some cases, the average lateral and vertical spread of the rounds. Accounting for the trajectory factors seems to be fairly straightforward however, it's the target that is the bigger problem. It's not just a forward moving monolith but, a multi-jointed object with segments moving forward and rearward along the direction of travel.
For example, imagine that you are a paintball traveling down the lane in the perfect ballistic trajectory (meaning you're straight as an arrow and dropping due to gravity and drag). A runner is intersecting with your path from your right. What part of him will intersect your path first? One of his arms as they rotate forward and back? His body? Which part of him will be in the path when you reach him? Maybe you miss his left arm and hit his body, or maybe your flying at just the right speed to where you miss his left arm and body and instead, hit the inside of his right arm. Trying to model this on paper would be pretty much impossible for most (if not all) of us. And this is with the simplified ballistic flight.