Paintball

[Lohman446]

Originally Posted by Cottontail

You might want to keep it as just a friendly game, where-as I train 7 days a week, run/condition/drill just so I can get a spot on that PSP podium NEXT year.

If you love the sport, then stop complaining about how we're ruining it, just go play.. or better yet, borrow one of my paint sprayers and hit the airball field. If you don't wanna do that, stick to stock class and fields that cater to a newer/older crowd.

I've played the sport. Not to the speed it is played today and not at the level of competition you do but I played it to at least the level of some of the big events.

I suggest if you have the athletic ability and the dedication to seriously compete in a sport you find a different sport . I mean that nicely.

I don't mind paintball as it is played in the tournament scene. I find it boring to watch but had a lot of fun playing it, at least most of the time. What I have an issue with is when those tactics bleed over to recreational play.

[thumper]

Originally Posted by Keebler

.. Why do people find it necessary to shoot that much when so far I've rarely seen it pay off for them more than if they had to bent their will to aim and hit their target in a few rounds as possible.

simple: they went to the field, got their feeling hurt, and went home pissed off. Next day: new gat in the mail and looking for pay-back. It takes years and years of experience to figure out it ain't the gun.

[Keebler]

Well for me getting into pump wasn't for many of the Same reasons others get into it. I wasn't looking for a challenge. I'm really not that good. It wasn't that I'm old school or even that I emulate old school I'm neither. Simply put. I hate hoppers and I like to back bottle.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Cottontail

I'm sorry, but come on.. if you can't take a bit of fast paced paintball, with a lot of paint in the air because you might get shot a few more times, go play frisbee golf or something.

That's sort of what Doug Brown was saying in his article (that was one of three parts by the way). The level of entry of new players falling off the cliffs; those players were choosing to do something else.

[Lohman446]

Originally Posted by Horizon

That's sort of what Doug Brown was saying in his article (that was one of three parts by the way). The level of entry of new players falling off the cliffs; those players were choosing to do something else.

Which creates a cycle. Without new players the "economics of scale" that have allowed paint prices to come down will, over time, adjust. Without affordable paint and / or unlimited (or nearly unlimited) paint sponsorship the volume of paint will come down. IF (and thats capitalized for a reason) the reason for new players falling off the cliff was volume of paint this will reverse. Of course new players will increase the volume again and we might start all over.

Do I ever think we will get back to the volume that it was in the beginning? No I do not. Those extremely low volumes were due to technological limitations (not the choice to limit players make today) that are not in existance today. However there is a reason that the ROF cap has come down in the major tournament series.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Lohman446

Which creates a cycle. Without new players the "economics of scale" that have allowed paint prices to come down will, over time, adjust. Without affordable paint and / or unlimited (or nearly unlimited) paint sponsorship the volume of paint will come down. IF (and thats capitalized for a reason) the reason for new players falling off the cliff was volume of paint this will reverse. Of course new players will increase the volume again and we might start all over.

At the wholesale level there was a bit of an adjustment a few years ago. Prices did go up some. But those wholesalers have a lot of competition today. Much of it from off shore sources and many of those off shore manufacturers seem to live by a completely different set of economic laws. The point is, North American paintball manufacturers can't just raise their prices to whatever they feel is right. The mass purchasers (fields and stores) see to it that manufacturer prices are kept low. That's why we have seen North American paintball manufacturers close and merge. They are operating, even with the price increase of a few years ago, very close to their lowest limits.

The slight increase the wholesalers had a few years ago would have very little affect at the local field. Sure prices for a case of paintballs went up two or three dollars, but the difference at the field between $45 and $48 (just an example) will be hardly noticeable.

[1996XJ]

Who knows if PSP will be around in a few years. With the massive amounts of new players being discouraged by the high ROF, I wouldn't be surprised if PSP participation dies out due to lack of fresh competitors.

[Tallen702]

Originally Posted by Lohman446

Which creates a cycle. Without new players the "economics of scale" that have allowed paint prices to come down will, over time, adjust. Without affordable paint and / or unlimited (or nearly unlimited) paint sponsorship the volume of paint will come down. IF (and thats capitalized for a reason) the reason for new players falling off the cliff was volume of paint this will reverse. Of course new players will increase the volume again and we might start all over.

If it were that simple and devoid of other factors, then we would have seen paint prices jump over the past 5 years or so. Instead, they're remaining at historically low levels. Back when I started working in the industry, we saw paint prices nearly double what we see them today in the retail setting. Cases ran anywhere from $60-$80/case in retail markets. Now I can walk on the field locally and pay $40/case or less for some pretty decent stuff.

What's more, we continue to see equipment prices decline. I remember selling 48/3000 steel HPA tanks for $100 or more when the first hit the market. Now you can walk into any Dick's or Walmart and pick one up for $60. If you wanted to go electropneumatic in the early 2000's, you were paying over $600 guaranteed, and that was for the various shocker and impulse clones. Now you can purchase a fully electropneumatic marker for under $150 BNIB.

I honestly think the only things that haven't come down in price are masks and clothing.

That said, I think the economy is still tied in a very large way to the downward trend we saw (I don't think we're still seeing it as of right now) in participation. It's easy to point to 2008 as the start of economic woes, but in reality, it started earlier than that. In fact, it started in 2005 when home-for-sale inventory started to climb drastically in comparison to people in the market to buy. The reason for homes going on the market is that people weren't able to pay their mortgages and decided to try to sell their homes to prevent foreclosure. That means that money was tight even back then, and when money is tight and your house and credit are on the line, you cut back on the extra things in life. Paintball is one of those things.

In fact, if you look at the data for retail sales, you see a large drop in late 2005 followed by the holiday sales increase and an immediate downward trend starting in 2006 which really hit hard in 2008 when the financial market fallout from the foreclosures which started in '05/'06 hit the CDO market.


As I said in an earlier post, we've climbed out of that pit quite a bit and are actually seeing a resurgence in paintball equipment production and diversification which we haven't seen since the SP lawsuit-spree started several years ago. What's more, the plethora of really good used equipment out there means that a lot of guys aren't being taken into account as "new players" by the industry bean-counters.

I just think it's stupid to say "paint hosers are what kill this sport and keep new people from playing" based on anecdotal evidence rather than take a really good empiricalistic view of all the contributing factors.

[Lohman446]

But home values and empty houses are geographically distinct. That is to say Vegas has an entirely different home market then North Dakota. If we are going to use real estate information as a judge we should have the ability to match sales geographically and create a distinction to see if that is the case.

[thumper]

Originally Posted by Tallen702

..I just think it's stupid to say "paint hosers are what kill this sport and keep new people from playing" based on anecdotal evidence rather than take a really good empiricalistic view of all the contributing factors.

OK: it aint empirical but I know Ive watched the novices show up to the field really excited about playing, and ready to play with everyone else.. and some guy with too much gun goes over to the chronorange and ripps off a burst. Next think you know the novices look at their rental 98, realize they are out gunned, and then immediately start working to make sure they have a private group... and thats assuming the field has the numbers, staff, etc to afford them to have a private group.

Overall the one rip has a CHILLING EFFECT on the novices.

for empirical results I'de say conduct a survey of the novice groups about their experiences at the fields that mix groups vs those that don't mix groups and compare the results. Maybe add the question:
: Are you more or less likely to try paintball again after your experience here today?