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Old 09-30-2017, 07:34 PM   #1 (permalink)
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who here remembers monty hall. he died at 96

Monty Hall, iconic 'Let's Make a Deal' host, dead at 96

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...224526852.html
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Old 09-30-2017, 07:37 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old 10-02-2017, 09:22 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I strongly disagree with the 2/3 argument. It makes much more sense that now you are making a new decision based on new information. If you take it as a new decision then you are simply looking at 2 doors and your chances for either door are each 50%.

I'd like to see someone actually run an experiment and see what the outcome really is scientifically.
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Old 10-02-2017, 03:04 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by CrowsFeast View Post
I strongly disagree with the 2/3 argument. It makes much more sense that now you are making a new decision based on new information. If you take it as a new decision then you are simply looking at 2 doors and your chances for either door are each 50%.

I'd like to see someone actually run an experiment and see what the outcome really is scientifically.
I didn't watch the video, but the "Monty Hall Problem" is well known. Wikipedia has a good article on it. You are always better off switching your answer after a known "zonk" door has been relieved.

The Mythbusters aren't exactly scientific, but sciency enough for this, and they ran the experiment you want. It was "Episode 177: Wheel of Mythfortune". They confirmed that it is better to switch, and also confirmed that most people are reluctant to switch.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:41 AM   #5 (permalink)
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You can run a simple simulation in Excel...comes out pretty much dead on 2/3 in favor of switching.
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