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View Poll Results: Is a recession immanent
Yes. We are already in one, and it will be official in a few months. 6 11.76%
Yes. Sometime this year. 10 19.61%
Yes. Probably in 2020. 22 43.14%
No. Everything is on track. 13 25.49%
Voters: 51. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-24-2019, 07:37 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Of course it is... eventually...

Local to me I can say this much, it's a mixed bag.

Trades and construction people that I talk to have busy and having record setting years. Many of the quarry's stayed open later into the winter than they usually do or haven't shut down yet, Higher ed institutions are having trouble filling classes, 2 state colleges merged about a year ago to cut costs and a small college just announced that they will close after this springs graduation.
Retailers are struggling, home prices for anything turn key are up (My home has almost doubled in "value" in 11 years) but fixer uppers and older homes in the city are DIRT CHEAP.
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:11 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Myself? I'm busier than ever right now and need to hire some people.



Heck, I just heard today that Walmart is trying their damndest to hire truck drivers and can't fill the positions and willing to pay something like 90K


Decided to look, here's one near me:

https://careers.walmart.com/us/jobs/...ver-raymond-nh


Average pay is 86K


The money is there and the jobs are there, while it may not be in your field, they are there.


But despite how much you make, you can always outspend your income. Always. A bigger house than you need, more stuff than you need, a nicer car than you need, etc, etc.



For the new younger generations the issues come from high amounts of school debt - someone should have stopped them from paying way too much for an education that left them still undervalued. They're not getting married early - Think of how much money you save when you pool two incomes together, even when they're both low (starting out) one rent, one electric bill, two people.


My wife and I saved up enough to buy a house at 25. It was ever penny we had and had less than $1K to our name, but it was the best thing we did.


Lastly you need to pay yourself first. Money into your 401k, then make sure you have emergency money. Everyone should have $400 cash in a safe. If you don't, stop... Stop going out to eat, sell something, etc. This will at least allow you to have some sort of emergency backstop.


Lastly, stop using credit cards - if you can't handle them. Meaning if you can't pay them off monthly, any "reward" you get is lost in interest payments. That's like someone saying: "I paid $1000 in interest, but hey... I got a free toaster!"


I say this lovingly:


Stop blaming the world for your problems and look a bit closer to home. Find out what you can do better - to make more money, save more, etc. Don't wait for it to happen, go out and make it happen.
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:25 AM   #23 (permalink)
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-Oh, I could write a rant and a half on that one. Even when I was in high school (which wasn't as long ago as some of you might think ) the guidance counsillors were pushing kids to go into the white-collar stuff. Be a lawyer, a CPA, work with computers, be an administrator, that kind of thing.

You don't want to have to get dirty and work with your hands now, do you?

As a kid who revelled in getting dirty and working with my hands and building things, I felt insulted. Like doing what I enjoyed most was somehow... icky.

I seethe at the thought of how much further along I might be, had that jagoff encouraged me to excel in doing something I enjoyed, rather than trying to make me feel almost ashamed to be involved with it.

And today, I see all these people building 3D printers out of junked inkjet parts and wondering how much further along they, too, would be, had they been encouraged to "get their hands dirty" in high school. (Some did, but it's clear from watching YouTube videos that a lot of today's "makers" never so much as picked up a hammer 'til sometime early last year. )

And yeah, I know guys in "white collar" jobs still paying off a quarter-million in student loans on a $50K a year job, while there's garbagemen, plumbers and septic-tank pumpers out there pulling in $125K a year.

This is gonna bite us on the adz. Those selfsame machine shops I just mentioned are screaming for operators- you don't even have to be an actual machinist. You just have to be able to show up and push a goddam button, and they can't even get those.

Yeah, part of it is it's hard for most shops to pay a hot wage, because of course there's a huge pressure on prices from Chinese sources, but lots of them are still offering $15 to $25 an hour starting wages, and still can't get anyone to show up.

And those that do show up, play on their phones all day, and then "ghost" after their first paycheck arrives.

In ten years, a big chunk of our current machining capability will be retiring, and we don't have new recruits already in the pipeline to replace them. This is going to be a serious problem in just a short while.

Doc.
This isn't limited to machining by any stretch. I recruit people for companies, and it's hard to find Civil Engineers or Electrical Engineers, let alone ones with PEs that companies really want. Same deal for Electricians, or even people who operate farm equipment. Crazy thing is that these jobs can pay extremely well, esp with a few years under your belt. But people that used to go to school for jobs like this seem to go for Computer Science or something else now. So there are major shortages already happening, and it's going to get a lot worse.

Also nuts is how many people go to law school versus need for lawyers. The idea that going to law school and just rolling into a high paying job isn't actually reality for a lot of people. And for many that do, you're essentially working 2 okay paying jobs at once when you're working 70-80 hours a week to pull in six figures.
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Old 01-24-2019, 04:22 PM   #24 (permalink)
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This isn't limited to machining by any stretch.
-Oh, definitely. That's just the market I know best, for some inexplicable reason.

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But people that used to go to school for jobs like this seem to go for Computer Science or something else now.
-And unless something major changes, it's going to get worse. Years ago, as I said, the kids were pushed to go into the "clean", white-collar stuff by guidance councillors and the like. But what we have today is "internet famous" people making solid bank- in some cases major bank- doing fun/interesting/cool stuff, like hosting a regular YouTube blog, or doing a webcomic, or playing video games.

So the kids look at the one hand, where you have to go to college for four to eight years, start working for somebody else at the ground floor, and work your way up to "the big bucks" by the time you're forty. Or in the other hand, they see this 20-year-old guy doing YouTube video game reviews, with half a million subscribers, and he's making $20K a month.

There's webcomics out there that only update three times a week, and rake in $3,500 a month. I know of one that last I looked, made over $10K a month(!!)

There's YouTube types like Alec Steele, This Old Tony and Colin Firth that make (an estimated) $25 to $50K a month just off of subscription traffic.

Kids today are looking at that and going "why would I want to go to college for seven years and become a doctor/lawyer/sewage technician when I can do something like that, have a lot of fun and make twice as much?"

Quote:
Also nuts is how many people go to law school versus need for lawyers.
-This has kind of been correcting itself since the recession. Law school enrollment is down by significant percentages since '08 or so, lawyer incomes are down as well, and so more and more are looking for other avenues to a high-paying profession.

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And for many that do, you're essentially working 2 okay paying jobs at once when you're working 70-80 hours a week to pull in six figures.
-I'm essentially working four jobs, put in closer to 90 hours a week, and I make in the low five figures.

And it kind of does make me a bit hypocritical- I could have easily gotten onto the North Slope, by any one of half a dozen companies. They're all screaming for machinists up there, and I was offered a starting wage of $80K a year, back in about '09 or '10.

If I'd taken that, I'd be making $150K/year today- and that's two-weeks-on, two-weeks-off, so that's $150K for half a years' work.

Either one of the two local machine shops would hire me in a heartbeat- I'm on very good terms with both of them, one even sends me some of their smaller jobs when they're booked up. Either one would likely start me out at $60K or better- and that's more than I'm making now, and I'd work fewer hours.

But, like the above mentioned types that found a niche doing something they enjoy rather than doing whatever will make them the most money, I'd rather do what I'm doing- and like I said, yeah, that does kinda make be a hypocrite.

Doc.
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Old 01-24-2019, 07:46 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Retail is up big time. Seems like people are more willing nowadays to buy stuff they don't really need because they can score a "good" deal. Mainly Amazon. It's all too easy to one-click buy on impulse and get junk shipped to your door in two days. I think it's addictive too.
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Old 01-24-2019, 08:09 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:32 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I've been saying this for years. This is why they need to bring back funding for trades in high school. Why give kids only two options after high school when you can give them a dozen? Sure, college and military are excellent choices. But why stop there? What if a kid doesn't want to or can't go to college and what if he's not qualified for the military? Maybe he can be a carpenter, machinist, electrician, a mason, etc. Doesn't have to just be trades either. The high schools in my area used to have radio stations and newspapers too. If a kid wanted to break into the radio industry or be a columnist, he or she can get a head start in high school.
That's what we are doing these days (I'm a hs teacher). Large push in my area to trades and other areas that require 2 or less years. That's where the job demands are currently.
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:48 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Tech stocks are still over valued, the banking system isn't any stronger than the last go 'round despite stress tests and might even be more vulnerable because of consolidation, student loan debt was at some astronomical number the last time anybody mentioned it but jobs don't pay any more than they used to, car financiers took variable rate loans and ran with them, the ACA has been shedding parts like a leper in a wood chipper so now insurance costs the same but covers less, trade wars aren't as easy to win as some would have us believe, Brexit is coming, nationalism is on the rise world wide, China's long trend of ridiculous growth has dropped to single digits, Russia's breaking everything they can get their hands on, the French have taken protesting reality from a favorite pastime to a popular career, I hear there's a government shutdown that's costing us billion$ every week but garage sales will fill that financial hole, some crazy expensive disaster strikes so often now it's gotten boring, 26 people have as much wealth as 3.8 billion other people, we're 11 years into the longest economic expansion since WWII and recessions typically happen every 5-7 years...

But, uh, everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here, now, thank you.

How are you?


Wait, what was the question?
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Old 01-24-2019, 09:56 PM   #29 (permalink)
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I wish someone had recommened a trade school to me. It would have suited my younger self much more than any "book" education..... I guess I did come around eventually, i graduate a "booky" trade school - nursing - in may. I'm 30. better late than never eh?
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Old 01-24-2019, 10:01 PM   #30 (permalink)
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That's what we are doing these days (I'm a hs teacher). Large push in my area to trades and other areas that require 2 or less years. That's where the job demands are currently.
That's awesome. Wish they offered those programs when I was in high school. My high school only offered tech programs. I had to find a machinists apprentice/carpenters apprentice volunteer position outside of school. When the recession hit, the company I was working at laid off a bunch of the tradesmen including my boss, who had gotten in trouble for other stuff outside of work and they were looking for a reason to can him. I ended up going a different route but still enjoy metalworking and woodworking in a hobby capacity.
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