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View Poll Results: Is a recession immanent
Yes. We are already in one, and it will be official in a few months. 6 11.76%
Yes. Sometime this year. 10 19.61%
Yes. Probably in 2020. 22 43.14%
No. Everything is on track. 13 25.49%
Voters: 51. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-23-2019, 10:35 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Is a recession immanent?

Why do you think so? Do you see anything at your work or in the news that has influenced your belief?
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:47 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Yes, definitely. Everyone I know lives paycheck to paycheck. Nobody my age or even older can afford a home, of if they have the down payment for a home, they're unable to compete with foreign or domestic real estate investors, or people with money paying cash for a home. Most people I know my age or older aren't getting married, having kids, or chasing the American dream because they can't afford to. Most people I know don't have enough to put aside to save or invest. Those that I do know who invest and save (me included) don't have enough faith in the economy to invest aggressively. There's even more I can say about why I think a recession is imminent but it would end up being a dissertation.
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Old 01-23-2019, 10:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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HyePower - Real estate in the Bay Area isn’t exactly normal for the country.

Things cycle up and down, but it’s been a long time since we’ve been down now. That along with all the recent uncertainty like Brexit, tradewars, ego driven government shutdowns, etc... I think there is a good chance in the next year or two that we’ll have a recession.

If anything really keeps me up at night it’s global climate change and population growth, we all reproduce like rabbits!
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackmagic71 View Post
HyePower - Real estate in the Bay Area isn’t exactly normal for the country.

Things cycle up and down, but it’s been a long time since we’ve been down now. That along with all the recent uncertainty like Brexit, tradewars, ego driven government shutdowns, etc... I think there is a good chance in the next year or two that we’ll have a recession.

If anything really keeps me up at night it’s global climate change and population growth, we all reproduce like rabbits!
That I know, my best bud at work is from Minnesota, and when he told me what you can get in Minnesota for a fraction of what you can get here, you would have needed a 2 ton floor jack to pick my jaw off the floor

Speaking of investing, we've been on a bull run since 2009-ish. It's been 10 years of all time highs. The tipping point is close and I firmly believe that if a crash were to happen, it's going to be a lot worse than 2008, 1987, etc.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:16 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I'm gen X I think (80). Not that it matters. I have a valuable skill that I am well paid for. I can't be out sourced. Work load is steady. Maybe I should have went for that liberal arts degree after all.

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Old 01-23-2019, 11:26 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HyePower View Post
That I know, my best bud at work is from Minnesota, and when he told me what you can get in Minnesota for a fraction of what you can get here, you would have needed a 2 ton floor jack to pick my jaw off the floor

Speaking of investing, we've been on a bull run since 2009-ish. It's been 10 years of all time highs. The tipping point is close and I firmly believe that if a crash were to happen, it's going to be a lot worse than 2008, 1987, etc.
I spent about 11 months between 2017 and 2018 working in the Bay Area. My wife and I found an extremely outdated 1 bedroom 1 bath upper level of a house with no parking in Crockett so close to the I-80 bridge you could probably toss a tennis ball into traffic if you wanted and we were paying $1800/month!

Even with the outrageous cost of housing Id say California was one of my absolute favorite places to live. You could bike around the Bay Area during the week and ski in Tahoe for the weekend. Not to mention all the good food and cool things to see in a relatively close radius!
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:37 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackmagic71 View Post
I spent about 11 months between 2017 and 2018 working in the Bay Area. My wife and I found an extremely outdated 1 bedroom 1 bath upper level of a house with no parking in Crockett so close to the I-80 bridge you could probably toss a tennis ball into traffic if you wanted and we were paying $1800/month!

Even with the outrageous cost of housing I’d say California was one of my absolute favorite places to live. You could bike around the Bay Area during the week and ski in Tahoe for the weekend. Not to mention all the good food and cool things to see in a relatively close radius!
I love the Bay Area, especially the city, can't imagine living anywhere else... but I have to admit that I've grown to become tired of all the BS and struggling to be approved for a place let alone paying rent. It's ridiculous. And $1800/month is unheard of now, it's gotten much worse since.

An old, early 1900's 2-3 bedroom 1-2 bathroom house is $1.4 mil+. a condo is $1 mil+. An apartment rents for $3k+ a month (no parking) **** that ****. I have cop friends I work with who are taking early retirements and going to Texas, Arizona, etc. Gotta admit I've considered it too.

I know a guy who moved to Crockett from SF, he loves it. In fact I know two guys who live there and both bought houses. I've never actually been in Crockett, just passed by it driving on the Carquinez Bridge. Seems like it's really coming up.

Last edited by HyePower; 01-23-2019 at 11:40 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:40 PM   #8 (permalink)
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you can still buy a modest home and property, just not in cali.
i still have some family in cali; some of them moved out due to living costs and regulations to sell farm/dairy goods (to oregon).

the only bulls that were running from 2008-2016 were in pamplona and maybe in chicago.

for there to be a "real" recession you'd need two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
we'll see what the end of 2018 Q4 results are and then it would have to be 6 months of straight negative growth into the mid-summer;
that's not gonna happen.

i can still buy property in alaska but instead of a vacation, travel to my "alaskan property" and improve it until i could live on it.
i'd give jersey the big middle finger since all they want to do here is tax and spend, just like cali.
can't wait for the new 11% renters tax here in jersey... thanx Gov. Phil Murphy, not!
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:47 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freedom View Post
from your post, i see you can still buy a modest home and property, just not in cali.
it's similar like that in jersey but the only bulls that were running from 2008-2016 were in Pamplona.

i'd love to buy property in alaska and instead of going on vacation, travel to my "property" and improve it until i could live on it.
I respect your opinion, charts are a lot different than real world issues. But looking at the S&P, and real estate markets nationwide, it's been on a constant upward trend for almost a decade. And that's what worries me.

I'm biased being a Californian, I will admit. It's a lot different here. Other parts of the nation are struggling a lot more economically and their real estate markets are either flat or declining in some areas. But as a whole, the stock market has been on an steady rise with almost no declines. And that's why I pulled out about a year ago from stocks. Switching over to cash for now.

EDIT: I am in no way putting down other regions in the country by saying they're not doing well economically. In fact I'm pretty pissed at California. The working class (Me, my family, friends) have no chance here. I'm just a regular guy.

Last edited by HyePower; 01-23-2019 at 11:54 PM.
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Old 01-23-2019, 11:49 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Virtually every machinist and manufacturer I know is packed to the gills. The last time I wanted to get some anodizing done, their six-week lead quote wound up being five months- my order simply wasn't big enough to compete with the endless streams of 100K part runs coming in the door at the time.

Speaking personally, a local CNC shop to me is so backed up they're thinking of hiring a new guy, a mostly-manual oilfield shop just bought a bigger CNC mill, and me... well, I got a start on my taxes for '18 and I made half again more than I did the previous year. Pretty much my best year in business so far. (#humblebrag. )

That's not to say there can't be a recession, but I think it's unlikely at least in the short term. The only thing that might trigger it before mid-'20 or so would be some stupid Congressional (but I repeat myself) legislation trying to jack corporate taxes back up, or something like that.

Oh, and you won't see it in the news, but the tariffs are generally working. That's helping some as well.

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