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Old 05-08-2015, 09:03 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Hey! Give another MCBer your stock pics! Please also give the thoughts/stats behind your pics!

I am watching MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corp), 3rd largest independent refiner in the the US. 1.7 million barrels per day. Also owns pipelines and the Speedway gas stations in upper Midwest and the East Coast. Bought up Hess gas stations.

All refineries are in the Midwest and South, with access to US crude. 1Q15 earnings were $3.24/share. Current p/e is 9, looks to be a year with fewer expenses. Dividend is right below 2%, 19% payout ratio. Has some debt, but ample cash flow.

The biggest part is owners of record on 5/20/15, will enjoy a 2-1 reverse split, each share owned will get an additional share, the price will be cut in half. I expect to see a bump up after the split.

I currently do not own this stock. After the rally today, I sold my position and am hoping for a pullback next week. This trades at a higher beta than the market. If we have profit taking next week, we could see a nice dip.

Good luck trading!
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Old 05-09-2015, 11:58 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Right now I'm eyeballing Realty Income Corporation (Symbol - O ). They're a REIT that leases property in nearly every state and to a ton of different industries. It's about $8 a share below it's previous high in January and they've had 500+ consecutive monthly dividends.

Raytheon (RTN) has treated me pretty well for a while. They manufacture a lot of defense oriented hardware and I'd imagine it's unlikely the military will stop buying radar and missile systems any time soon. Plus they sell a bunch of hardware to friendly foreign countries including a $2billion deal recently to Poland for Patriot missiles. With Russia and China flexing their muscles more I think their smaller neighbors will try and beef up a bit as well (unless they want to be the next Ukraine... Even Japan is nervous enough they're considering altering their constitution that forbids any military action except direct defense of the home islands)

Personally I kind of like Electric and Water utilities, they're not super interesting, and they usually don't make a ton of money. But they generally all pay a pretty solid dividend and the way I see it most people are always going to pay their electric and water bills unless they get into some serious problems . (It's hard to live if you cant flush a toilet.)
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Old 05-09-2015, 12:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Union Pacific Railroad (UNP) might be a pretty decent buy right now as well. They've got some challenges including recent strikes on the West Coast and reduced coal shipments, but over the long run they're a pretty consistent performer.
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Old 05-09-2015, 01:09 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Old 06-30-2015, 04:53 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Curious how this Greece thing plays out and what it does to the various markets.
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Old 08-13-2015, 01:27 AM   #6 (permalink)
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No stock traders in the group....always looking for ideas...

I have looked at UNP (Union Pacific Railroad)...I think the headwinds of less coal and oil shipments are not positive. Inter-modal & auto transports are positive. Grain shipments may be iffy this year, higher dollar = less exports and I hear there is a good crop everywhere. US had a good crop last year, storage may be pretty full. The drag of the coal and oil shipments will not overcome the positives. On top of that, the railroads have to upgrade the locomotives to where they can be remote controlled...more cost.

IMHO, at least right not (this could change)...$80 is my price target. Currently the bottom is approx $90-$92, watching the rails, they all have a large moat...impossible to duplicate their footprint of tracks. Cheapest way to ship, when gas prices go up (not 100% sure when this will happen, at least 2 yrs out), rails will get more traffic.

Also watching Norfolk Southern (NSC) and CSX.
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Old 08-17-2015, 02:25 AM   #7 (permalink)
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So waiting to buy until it hits that? Or buying puts (or shorting) and out at $80?
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Old 08-17-2015, 11:07 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I haven't started buying options yet...mostly wait until I see a stock that is a buy, do my research and I am in.

I avoid restaurant, retail and airlines...

My current watch list is rails, banks, oil (refiners, exploration & production, integrated and MLP's)...a REIT and a little tech and bio-tech

Current watch list...

AGNC (reit)
BLK
BP
BX
CBI (liked better before they bought Shaw)
COP
CSX
CVX
GILD
HON
IBM
JPM
KMI
KSU
LUK
MBLY (makes tech for self driving cars....not sure if it is worth the risk)
MMM
MPC (currently own)
MPLX (mlp for MPC....seriously considering buying)
NOV (makes oil drilling stuff, down 50% serious watch)
NSC
OIL
OXY
PSX (phillips 66, used to own...held up by west coast refining profits, have LNG port coming online shortly...debating this one)
PSXP (mlp for PSX)
SLB
SLV
TSO
UNP (like Union Pacific, heads and tails above other rails on efficiency...coal and oil shipments are headwinds, 2nd Panama canal almost done...are the east coast rails better???)
VLO
WFC

Banks will have slow growth....probably need to research digital printing...supposedly the waive of the future...
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Old 08-19-2015, 09:05 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I have significantly outperformed the market with individual stocks...why hold index funds. At least hold a large cap mutual fund that has out performed the market. Dodge and Cox, Vanguard or American Funds.

The market gives you opportunities, just take them.
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Old 08-20-2015, 08:44 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Buy index funds, not individual stocks.

The 15-Stock Diversification Myth

If you need more convincing, there are a tonne of books on the topic. "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" is a good start.
I agree. For those that do like to gamble (I'm included), I'd suggest keeping 90% of your savings in index funds and reserving 10% (or less) for gambling on individual picks.
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