12-26-2014, 04:00 PM
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Patton, PA
interesting post on CoC Reddit...
In an effort to improve our clan's predictable success in war, I began researching how SuperCell matches clans searching for war opponents. One clan, "Lost Phoenix", was able to successfully decrypt the SuperCell formula well enough to begin matching its feeder clans against one another in war. After several weeks of meta-analysis research and validating theories through our wars, the following summary explains how clans are matched for war. |
1) Rushed bases are your worst enemy. To ensure the most balanced match, SuperCell uses an algorithm to match opponents. The specific weight percentage SuperCell allocates to each subcategory is not known. However, there is significant evidence that supports tremendous weight being given to Town Hall (TH) level. Because building and troop statistics do not increase at the same rate between each level, the upgrade selection potential changes substantially when upgrading from TH8 to TH9 and from TH9 to TH10. If specific values were assigned to each troop and troop level without taking the TH level into account clashers would be able to maximize two or three troops and leave the others at level one to offset their troop strength. Because clashers are given the choice and ability to upgrade troops to maximum levels based on the ceiling of their TH size, it therefore uses TH level as an element of their selection criterion. What does this mean for clashers? Upgrade everything (troops, dark elixir troops, barracks, buildings, mines, defenses) to their respective maximum levels for your TH before upgrading your big house. Failing to max your base will cost your clan valuable "strength" points in the war selection process and could cause you to face a very mismatched and tough opponent.
2) Town Hall balancing. Due to the aforementioned credence SuperCell gives TH level, using very low TH's to offset high TH's does work. However, because of the incremental changes established by the algorithm, a mere one or two very low TH's added to your war clan are not likely to have a noticeable impact on the selection. Many clans have noted success in adding 10 very low TH's to their war clan. Their strategy is to not count on any of the low bases earning any stars. This is one method clans use to be paired with a lower "match". It is likely SuperCell will fix this before long.
3) The Geometric Mean. As a university math professor I am intrigued and convinced of theories based upon supporting mathematical data. SuperCell's war-selection algorithm was first decoded by Claira from Lost Phoenix in June 2014. As cited earlier, Lost Phoenix was able to use this data to re-construct two of their clans so that they were so balanced they were matched against one another in war. The algorithm uses geometric mean, assigning lower weights to outliers, to determine clan "strength". This is what prevents adding only a few low bases from tipping the scale. In a meeting with SuperCell developers in March 2014, prior to the April 2014 war search update, Supercell shared that the following were specific elements used in the formula: 1) Hero Levels; 2) TH Level; 3) Troop Level; 4) Defense Level; 5) Number of Players. They also shared that each category is evaluated separately and the subsequent mean within one standard deviation determines that category's "strength". SuperCell went on to say that trophies, player level and base layout have no effect on the selection method. Obviously, if someone has a fully maxed TH10 their player level will be higher, yet that is not currently being used as a comparison element. What does all of this mean for clashers? To remain as strong as possible but to be scored as weak as possible clashers should maximize their base and troops in the order of value they serve. Meaning that if you are going to put your air defenses unprotected on the outside of your walls, then they are not going to bring you much value. Equally, if you are not going to use Valkyries, then upgrade them last so that their strength is not counted against you. Most of all, do not under any circumstances upgrade your base until everything is maxed; doing so tells SuperCell that you're stronger than you really are causing them to match your clan with another strong clan.
4) Timing is everything. Most war searches take place between 7PM and 11PM (EST) as well as between 6AM and 9AM (EST). When clan leadership begins a war search SuperCell attempts to find the most compatible match possible using its algorithm. However, every three minutes that the search has not found a match it broadens its search one standard deviation from its geometric mean. Subsequently, clans are encouraged to restart the war search every three minutes if a match is not found. If the search is not restarted, the gravity of the mismatch begins to exponentially increase.
5) Attack early. Clans have cited as much as a 40% "quit rate" against clans whom they've earned 50% of the available stars within the first two hours of war.
It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy course; who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly; so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat. - Theodore Roosevelt http://www.mcarterbrown.com/forums/f...-feedback.html